Mini LED LCD and UHD Market Potential

Mini LED, positioned as a premium strategy for LCD UHD technology, is gaining increasing attention as a promising alternative to OLED, with the potential to reshape the market by 2025. 

The market for televisions priced above $1,500 has experienced a steady decline since its peak following the COVID-19 pandemic. Within this segment, product offerings can largely be categorized into OLED and ultra-large LCD models. A comparison of shipment data from the first half of 2021 to 2024 reveals a significant drop in the market share of LCD TVs in the 60-inch and 70-inch categories priced above $1,500. However, this is not the result of a decline in demand for larger LCD TVs, but rather of falling prices of those TV sets, which see them re-categorized to the sub-$1,500 group, driving rapid growth in that category. This shift has allowed brands like TCL and Hisense to strengthen their position in the ultra-large TV market in the under- $1,500 market. 

In contrast, the shipments of 80-inch LCD TVs and OLED TVs in the above-$1,500 market have remained stable without any notable change in shipments, and OLED TVs have shown little movement in the under-$1,500 segment during this period. 

Large premium LCD TVs incorporate Quantum dot solutions, which are designed to enhance wide color gamut performance and deliver vibrant and accurate colors. Over 20% of this high-end lineup now incorporates Mini LED backlight technology reinforcing HDR with local dimming, positioning these models as direct competitors to OLED TVs in the premium market where we find the UHD-enabled TV sets. With a lower cost and price of Mini LED technology, its increased use has intensified the competition for market leadership in this high-end segment.  

Mini LED is experiencing growth in Western Europe and North America   

Regionally, the Chinese market has leaned heavily toward Mini LED as the preferred premium technology, diverging from the global focus on OLED. Similarly, Mini LED’s influence is growing in emerging markets where Chinese brands such as Hisense, TCL, Skyworth and Xiaomi are dominant, particularly in Latin America & the Caribbean and the Middle East & Africa. 

Conversely, OLED continues to dominate in Europe and Japan. However, recent shipment data from the second quarter show that the gap between OLED and Mini LED sales volumes is narrowing, with Mini LED experiencing rapid growth in key markets like Western Europe -which experienced 30% YoY growth in 3Q24- and certainly North America – with a 227% YoY growth in the same period. This trend highlights Mini LED's potential to further disrupt the premium TV market where UHD-enabled devices are. 

Mini LED TV market is projected to surpass the OLED TV market by 2026  

Reflecting these recent market trends, Omdia’s latest forecast significantly raises the projected number of Mini LED TVs compared to the previous quarter’s outlook and accounts for a reduction in the OLED TV forecast. As previously noted, the growth in Mini LED volumes is largely driven by Chinese and other manufacturers, who are focusing on ultra-large LCD TVs rather than OLEDs. These companies are rapidly expanding the premium LCD TV segment by incorporating QD and Mini LED technologies into ultra-large screens. 

Meanwhile, the OLED TV market has seen a surge in share since Samsung’s re-entry in 2022, yet its growth has primarily come at the expense of other OLED players, such as LG, rather than driving an expansion of overall TV market demand. While competition between Samsung and LG may allow for some growth in the OLED segment, other manufacturers are increasingly shifting away from OLED TVs and aligning with the Mini LED TV category. This shift underscores a broader realignment within the premium TV market. 

By 2025, Mini LED TVs are poised for accelerated growth, with even Samsung -despite its focus on expanding OLED TV offerings- preparing to introduce lower-priced Mini LED models to better compete with Chinese manufacturers. As the number of players increases and product lineups diversify, Omdia projects that manufacturers will ship 7.9M of TV sets with Mini LED technology in 2026, surpassing for the first time OLED, which is forecasted to reach 7M that year. With Samsung and LG increasingly dominating the OLED TV market, the growing popularity of Mini LED TVs could create opportunities for more TV vendors to enter and compete in the high-end market offering UHD-capable TV sets using a more affordable technology.  

A key factor driving this shift is the growing demand for ultra-large TVs. The LCD TV sector, leveraging low-cost Mini LED technology and low-density QD products, is effectively addressing this trend. In contrast, OLED TVs face price limitations and escalating costs as they scale to larger screen sizes, potentially constraining their competitiveness.